On March 10, 2022, a long-lasting solar flare occurred in the massive sunspot area AR2960. It resulted in a coronal mass ejection headed at Earth (CME).
On March 13, charged particles from the sun are expected to arrive at 11:35 UTC (plus or minus 7 hours). This suggests that auroral activity in the Western Hemisphere might rise tonight (March 12-13).The estimate is based on NASA's ENLIL solar wind / CME model, which is utilized by scientists. The effect is expected to be between Kp=5 and 8, or a light (G1) to severe geomagnetic storm (G4).
Direct Hit! NOAA (left) & NASA (right) prediction models show #solarstorm to hit Earth between 12:00 & 21:00 UTC March 13. Impact should be strong! Expect #aurora deep into mid-latitudes, amateur #radio & #GPS reception issues, especially near dawn/dusk, & on Earth's nightside! pic.twitter.com/m9a24WgzIJ
— Dr. Tamitha Skov (@TamithaSkov) March 11, 2022
A massive CME will make a direct strike on Earth. The ensuing geomagnetic phenomena have the potential to create a spectacular auroral display.
Another CME, which departed the sun on Monday, March 7, 2022, sideswiped Earth on March 10. At high latitudes, it caused an auroral spectacle.
Reference(s):
Earth Sky | Sun news: Big CME direct hit expected. Aurora alert!