When Neil Armstrong took his one small step for [a] man in 1969 on Moon, a small group of people has claimed the moon landing was faked. An Oxford University physicist is trying to completely disapprove this conspiracy theory once and for all with just a simple mathematical equation that computes how many people need to keep mum to uphold a cover-up over time.
David Robert Grimes established a way to compute the practicality of a given conspiracy theory grounded on how many people are essentially involved in a supposed cover-up. His study was published recently in PLOS One. The main takeaway is an apparent one: The more people involved in this so-called fake landing, the quicker it’ll get out.
If NASA had truly faked the moon landing, about 411,000 people would have had to keep completely quiet about it, and as such, the secret would have gotten out in less than just four years, according to Grimes's formula. Using the same formula, a climate change conspiracy would necessitate around 405,000 beings plotting together and also would have been exposed long ago.
Grimes's formula takes into account not only the number of conspirators, but also the nature of the disloyalty: Does it include simply silence or repeated maintenance? Grimes also reflected the lifespan of those involved (and whether they’d die from old age or something more nefarious). In each case, Grimes overestimated to achieve odds that were a "best case scenario" for the schemes—around a four in 1 million chance of a purposeful or accidental revelation.
In a release, Grimes said: "This will of course not convince everyone; there's ample evidence that belief in conspiracy is often ideological rather than rational, and that conspiracy theories thrive in an echo chamber. This makes challenging the more odious narratives much more difficult. If we are to address the multitudinous difficulties facing us as a species, from climate change to geopolitics, then we need to embrace reality over ideologically motivated fictions.”